As financial, stock and economic crises swirl around the globe, the impact on the display industry is starting to be felt. News from this month's Mobile Display Report (MDR) highlights some of the warning signs.
For example, LED device and related equipment sales were strong through Q3, but there are now signs that Q4 will be tougher. Sales in August and September were solid and should continue to be OK through October as handset makers continue to produce, but sales could tank in November.
And, LED product equipment vendors are reporting a slowdown in expansion plans. Apparently, more and more sales are being done on a short-term basis, so trying to predict sales volume into the future is becoming more difficult -- and can lead to rapid swings that are hard to foresee. Such volatility is not a good thing.
Sales of small-to-medium sized LCDs were also strong in Q3 and companies are optimistic about Q4, but there are signs of concern. Handset and digital cameras makers continue to drive growth in small panels, but more competitors are entering the market, which will eventually create an oversupply situation.
This could become a big problem if the segment slows down considerably.
Medium-sized panels are targeted for applications like digital picture frames and sales expectations here got ahead of reality over the last year. Will consumers snap up these products faster this holiday season?
Maybe, especially if these products see deep discounts, and if they add additional features like wireless connectivity.
Storm clouds are gathering. CPT for example, is "preparing for the worst." The company will implement an average 10% production cutback through 2009, which will include laying-off employees. Don't be surprised to see other similar moves going forward.
And as analyst Ken Werner points out in one of his articles, "One of the tricks we use to see past all the trees and get a good overview of the forest is to look at what the industry's suppliers of key materials and components are doing. Their sales and sales projections are averaged over many panel makers and many display types.
When the supplier is Corning, which provides approximately 60% of the display glass used by the global LCD industry, you get a view of the forest's health from 30,000 feet."
And what is Corning saying? While it is forecasting growth of 15% to 25%, that is down from its previous estimate of 20% to 25%. That means delaying new plants and reducing capex.
Polarizer suppliers are also hurting. Optimax and Skypola will downsize their operations, for example.
Nevertheless, technology innovation continues unabated. In this issue, we highlight:
· A new OLED microdisplay company and product
· Drivers for high-power LEDs
· Glass-based LEDs
· Printed OLED technique
· A new flexible OLED technology
· OLED panels with a PenTile pixel matrix
· A new laptop LCD with built-in privacy screen
· Handsets with changeable keypads
· Novel two-part mobile handsets
· New concept handsets
· Handsets with handwriting recognition
· A number of new pico-projection products from Dell and Asian suppliers
· Samsung's new SOM laser projector
· KDDI's 3D handset display
· A novel 3D video recorder
· New development in large-size e-book readers
· A new R2R flexible display line
· A novel flexible backplane technology for e-paper and OLED
· New personal eyewear with a holographic optical element
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