Insight Media Forecasts Rapid LED-based LCD TV Uptake in 2011

LCD-TV today uses CCFL backlight technology, but many think that LED backlights are the future. But costs remain an issue in the adoption of LED backlights for larger-sized LCDs. Using a new cost model tool developed by Insight Media and validated by industry experts, the model finds that the price decline for LED backlights will be steep, allowing a rapid changeover to begin around 2011.

Insight Media's sophisticated Cost/Throughput Model for LCD Backlight Units (BLUs) is a tool that can be used to determine the component and subsystem cost for dozens of different types of backlight configurations. Pricing is forecasted to 2012, allowing easy comparison between alternative solutions. The tool can also be used for design tradeoff analysis. The figure below shows the input parameters, calculated results and the pricing forecasts for the component bill of materials for a specific configuration.

Using this tool, Insight Media has found that the cost of a CCFL (Cold Cathode Fluorescent Lamp) backlight unit for a 46" LCD TV costs about $212. By 2012, the cost will be reduced by nearly 50% to $122. Significant savings will come for advancements in the BLU inverter/driver electronics, diffusion board, DBEF sheet and prism sheet.

Using this tool for a direct-view type LED backlight (assume white LED without red/green enhancement phosphors), the cost picture is much different. The grand total for the BLU in 2008 is $388, an 83% premium over the CCFL BLU. By 2012, this premium falls to only 13% as the cost of the BLU is about $138. History has shown that adoption of a new technology begins in earnest at about a 30% premium level and accelerates as this premium drops. According to our model, this will occur near the end of 2010 or early 2011.

The model can also be used to look at edge-lit LED BLU architectures, EEFL, RGB LEDs, enhanced gamut white LEDs, and u-shaped circular CCFLs. In addition, dozens of different film configurations can be modeled allowing notebook, monitor and TV makers, along with component suppliers and BLU manufacturers, to very quickly evaluate the cost-performance trade-offs of a number of options. The tool is easy to use with accessible formulas and the ability to customize with company-specific data or configurations.

This multi-purpose tool is available immediately from Insight Media for $2,000. Or, this tool can be bundled with the newly-released 193-page LCD Backlight Report, which provides comprehensive analysis of all LCD BLU technologies, and forecasts penetration in notebook, monitor and LCD TV segments. See http://www.insightmedia.info/reports/2008blucmdetails.php to learn more and to download a static version of the model for review.

BLU Cost Model Tool (Excel Workbook) & 2008 LCD BLU Report

$6,000

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BLU Cost Model Tool (Excel Workbook) as a stand alone tool

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Contact: annmarie@insightmedia.info

Contact: Insight Media, Annmarie Gabisch, 203-831-8464, info@insightmedia.info