2010 3DTV Forecast Report:
A Comprehensive Worldwide Forecast of 3D Television Unit Sales by Region and Technology


Table of Contents
1 Introduction 8
2 Executive Summary 9
2.1.      Forecasts 9
2.2.      Key Take-Aways 12
3 Methodology 14
3.1.      Step-by-Step Methodology 14
3.1.1.           Tops-Down Approach 15
3.1.1.1.                Establish the Total Available Market (TAM) 15
3.1.1.2.                Evaluate and Select Penetration Models 16
3.1.1.3.                Develop Optimistic and Conservative Forecasts 16
3.1.2.           Bottoms-up Approach 16
3.1.2.1.                Market Development Analysis (Technology Independent) 16
3.1.2.2.                Price-Performance-Competitive Analysis (Technology Dependent) 17
3.1.2.3.                Consumer Expectations Analysis (Technology Dependent and Technology Independent) 17
3.1.3.           Final Forecasts Development 21
3.1.3.1.                Intermediate Forecasts (by Region and by Technology) 21
3.1.3.2.                Apply Regional and Distribution Factors 22
3.1.3.3.                Optimistic, Expected and Conservative Regional Forecasts 22
3.1.3.4.                Technology Forecasts by Region 22
3.1.3.5.                Validation 22
3.1.3.6.                Final Forecasts 22
4 3DTV Analysis and Forecast Results 23
4.1.      Tops-Down Approach 23
4.1.1.           Top Level World Wide TV Forecast by Technology and Region 23
4.1.2.           Adjusted TAM Based on Size and Technology 24
4.1.3.           Penetration Models 29
4.2.      Bottoms-Up Approach 31
4.2.1.           Market Development Analysis (Technology Independent) 31
4.2.1.1.                Introduction 31
4.2.1.2.                Comment about Terrestrial Broadcast 31
4.2.1.3.                Glasses for 3DTV 32
4.2.1.4.                Content and Infrastructure Analysis 33
4.2.2.           Consumer Expectations Analysis (Technology Independent) 39
4.2.3.           Price Performance Competitive Analysis (Technology Dependent) 46
4.2.3.1.                DLP-RPTV: Page-Flipping 47
4.2.3.2.                LCD: x-pol 47
4.2.3.3.                LCD: Page-Flipping 53
4.2.3.4.                LCD: Active Retarder 58
4.2.3.5.                Plasma: Page-Flipping 60
4.2.3.6.                OLED: Page-Flipping 64
4.2.3.7.                LCD Autostereoscopic 66
4.2.4.           Consumer Expectations Analysis (Technology Dependent) 69
4.2.4.1.                DLP-RPTV: Page-Flipping 69
4.2.4.2.                LCD: x-pol 73
4.2.4.3.                LCD: Page-Flipping 77
4.2.4.4.                LCD: Active Retarder 80
4.2.4.5.                Plasma: Page-Flipping 82
4.2.4.6.                OLED: Page-Flipping 86
4.2.4.7.                LCD Autostereoscopic 88
4.2.5.           Consumer Expectations Analysis Scoring Summary 90
4.3.      Adjustments, Validation and Final Forecast Development 90
4.3.1.           Intermediate Forecasts 90
4.3.2.           Regional and Distribution Factors 91
4.3.2.1.                USA & Canada 92
4.3.2.2.                Europe 93
4.3.2.3.                Japan & Korea 94
4.3.2.4.                China 95
4.3.2.5.                India 96
4.3.2.6.                ROW Developed 97
4.3.2.7.                ROW Under-Developed 98
4.4.      Regional Forecasts 99
4.4.1.           Worldwide 99
4.4.2.           USA & Canada 100
4.4.3.           Europe 102
4.4.4.           Japan & Korea 105
4.4.5.           China 107
4.4.6.           India 110
4.4.7.           ROW Developed 112
4.4.8.           ROW Under-Developed 115
4.5.      Technology Forecasts by Region (Expected) 117
4.5.1.           LCD 3DTV Forecast by Region 117
4.5.1.1.                LCD: Page-Flipping Forecast by Region 118
4.5.1.2.                LCD: x-pol 118
4.5.1.3.                LCD: Active Retarder Forecast by Region 119
4.5.1.4.                LCD: Autostereoscopic Forecast by Region 119
4.5.2.           Plasma: Page-Flipping Forecast by Region 120
4.5.3.           OLED: Page-Flipping Forecast by Region 120
4.5.4.           DLP-RPTV: Page-Flipping Forecast by Region 121
4.6.      Rolled-up Forecasts 121
5 Appendix A: 3DTV Product Announcements 124
6 Appendix B: Technology Independent Criteria Definitions 125
7 Appendix C: Technology Dependent Criteria Definitions 126
Table of Figures
Figure 1: Worldwide 3DTV Forecast 9
Figure 2: Worldwide 3DTV Forecast Expected by Region 10
Figure 3: Worldwide 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Optimistic 10
Figure 4: Worldwide 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Expected 11
Figure 5: Worldwide 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Conservative 11
Figure 6: Worldwide LCD 3DTV Forecast Expected by Technology 12
Figure 7: Forecast Methodology Flowchart 15
Figure 8: Sample Meets Expectations vs. Importance Plot 20
Figure 9: Product Assessment Using the Evaluation Chart 21
Figure 10: Worldwide TV Forecast by Region 24
Figure 11: Adjusted Worldwide TAM (>30") by Technology 25
Figure 12: Adjusted USA & Canada TAM (>30") by Technology 25
Figure 13: Adjusted Europe TAM (>30") by Technology 26
Figure 14: Adjusted Japan & Korea TAM (>30") by Technology 26
Figure 15: Adjusted China TAM (>30") by Technology 27
Figure 16: Adjusted India TAM (>30") by Technology 27
Figure 17: Adjusted ROW Developed TAM (>30") by Technology 28
Figure 18: Adjusted ROW Under-Developed TAM (>30") by Technology 28
Figure 19: Consumer Electronics Household Penetration Curves Normalized to Year Zero 29
Figure 20: Consumer Electronics Penetration Curves Normalized to 50% 30
Figure 21: Consumer Expectations Analysis - General Issues - 2009 40
Figure 22: Consumer Expectations Analysis - General Issues - 2011 42
Figure 23: Consumer Expectations Analysis - General Issues - 2013 43
Figure 24: Consumer Expectations Analysis - General Issues - 2015 45
Figure 25: Consumer Expectations Analysis - DLP-RPTV: Page-Flipping - 2009 69
Figure 26: Consumer Expectations Analysis - DLP-RPTV: Page-Flipping - 2011 70
Figure 27: Consumer Expectations Analysis - DLP-RPTV: Page-Flipping - 2013 71
Figure 28: Consumer Expectations Analysis - DLP-RPTV: Page-Flipping - 2015 72
Figure 29: Consumer Expectations Analysis - LCD: x-pol - 2009 73
Figure 30: Consumer Expectations Analysis - LCD: x-pol - 2011 74
Figure 31: Consumer Expectations Analysis - LCD: x-pol - 2013 75
Figure 32: Consumer Expectations Analysis - LCD: x-pol - 2015 76
Figure 33: Consumer Expectations Analysis - LCD: Page-Flipping - 2011 77
Figure 34: Consumer Expectations Analysis - LCD: Page-Flipping - 2013 78
Figure 35: Consumer Expectations Analysis - LCD: Page-Flipping - 2015 79
Figure 36: Consumer Expectations Analysis - LCD: Active Retarder - 2013 80
Figure 37: Consumer Expectations Analysis - LCD: Active Retarder - 2015 81
Figure 38: Consumer Expectations Analysis - Plasma: Page-Flipping - 2009 82
Figure 39: Consumer Expectations Analysis - Plasma: Page-Flipping - 2011 83
Figure 40: Consumer Expectations Analysis - Plasma: Page-Flipping - 2013 84
Figure 41: Consumer Expectations Analysis - Plasma: Page-Flipping - 2015 85
Figure 42: Consumer Expectations Analysis - OLED: Page-Flipping - 2013 86
Figure 43: Consumer Expectations Analysis - OLED: Page-Flipping - 2015 87
Figure 44: Consumer Expectations Analysis - LCD: Autostereoscopic - 2013 88
Figure 45: Consumer Expectations Analysis - LCD: Autostereoscopic - 2015 89
Figure 46: Worldwide 3DTV Forecast Expected by Region 99
Figure 47: USA & Canada 3DTV Forecast 100
Figure 48: USA & Canada 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Optimistic 100
Figure 49: USA & Canada 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Expected 101
Figure 50: USA & Canada 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Conservative 101
Figure 51: USA & Canada LCD 3DTV Forecast Expected by Technology 102
Figure 52: Europe 3DTV Forecast 102
Figure 53: Europe 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Optimistic 103
Figure 54: Europe 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Expected 103
Figure 55: Europe 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Conservative 104
Figure 56: Europe LCD 3DTV Forecast Expected by Technology 104
Figure 57: Japan & Korea 3DTV Forecast 105
Figure 58: Japan & Korea 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Optimistic 105
Figure 59: Japan & Korea 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Expected 106
Figure 60: Japan & Korea 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Conservative 106
Figure 61: Japan & Korea LCD 3DTV Forecast Expected by Technology 107
Figure 62: China 3DTV Forecast 107
Figure 63: China 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Optimistic 108
Figure 64: China 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Expected 108
Figure 65: China 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Conservative 109
Figure 66: China LCD 3DTV Forecast Expected by Technology 109
Figure 67: India 3DTV Forecast 110
Figure 68: India 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Optimistic 110
Figure 69: India 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Expected 111
Figure 70: India 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Conservative 111
Figure 71: India LCD 3DTV Forecast Expected by Technology 112
Figure 72: ROW Developed 3DTV Forecast 112
Figure 73: ROW Developed 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Optimistic 113
Figure 74: ROW Developed 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Expected 113
Figure 75: ROW Developed 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Conservative 114
Figure 76: ROW Developed LCD 3DTV Forecast Expected by Technology 114
Figure 77: ROW Under-Developed 3DTV Forecast 115
Figure 78: ROW Under-Developed Forecast by Technology - Optimistic 115
Figure 79: ROW Under-Developed 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Expected 116
Figure 80: ROW Under-Developed 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Conservative 116
Figure 81: ROW Under-Developed LCD 3DTV Forecast Expected by Technology 117
Figure 82: LCD 3DTV Forecast by Region 117
Figure 83: LCD: Page-Flipping Forecast by Region 118
Figure 84: LCD: x-pol Forecast by Region 118
Figure 85: LCD: Active Retarder Forecast by Region 119
Figure 86: LCD: Autostereoscopic Forecast by Region 119
Figure 87: Plasma: Page-Flipping Forecast by Region 120
Figure 88: OLED: Page Flipping Forecast by Region 120
Figure 89: DLP-RPTV: Page-Flipping Forecast by Region 121
Figure 90: Worldwide 3DTV Forecast 121
Figure 91: Worldwide 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Optimistic 122
Figure 92: Worldwide 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Expected 122
Figure 93: Worldwide 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Conservative 123
Figure 94: Worldwide LCD 3DTV Forecast Expected by Technology 123
Figure 95: 3DTV Product Announcements 124
Table of Tables
Table 1: Sample Criteria Definitions 18
Table 2: Sample Analysis Score 19
Table 3: 3D Glasses Assumptions 32
Table 4: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - 2009 41
Table 5: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - 2011 42
Table 6: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - 2013 44
Table 7: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - 2015 45
Table 8: Price Performance Competitive Analysis - DLP-RPTV: Page-Flipping 47
Table 9: Brand Support - LCD: x-pol 53
Table 10: Brand Support - LCD: Page-Flipping 58
Table 11: Brand Support - LCD: Active Retarder 60
Table 12: Brand Support - Plasma: Page-Flipping 63
Table 13: Brand Support - OLED: Page-Flipping 65
Table 14: Brand Support - LCD: Autostereoscopic 68
Table 15: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - DLP-RPTV: Page-Flipping - 2009 69
Table 16: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - DLP-RPTV: Page-Flipping - 2011 70
Table 17: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - DLP-RPTV: Page-Flipping - 2013 71
Table 18: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - DLP-RPTV: Page-Flipping - 2015 72
Table 19: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - LCD: x-pol - 2009 73
Table 20: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - LCD: x-pol - 2011 74
Table 21: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - LCD: x-pol - 2013 75
Table 22: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - LCD: x-pol - 2015 76
Table 23: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - LCD: Page-Flipping - 2011 77
Table 24: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - LCD: Page-Flipping - 2013 78
Table 25: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - LCD: Page-Flipping - 2015 79
Table 26: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - LCD: Active Retarder - 2013 80
Table 27: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - LCD: Active Retarder - 2015 81
Table 28: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - Plasma: Page-Flipping - 2009 82
Table 29: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - Plasma: Page-Flipping - 2011 83
Table 30: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - Plasma: Page-Flipping - 2013 84
Table 31: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - Plasma: Page-Flipping - 2015 85
Table 32: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - OLED: Page-Flipping - 2013 86
Table 33: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - OLED: Page-Flipping - 2015 87
Table 34: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - LCD: Autostereoscopic - 2013 88
Table 35: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - LCD: Autostereoscopic - 2015 89
Table 36: Consumer Expectations Analysis Scoring Summary 90
Table 37: 3DTV Regional Brand Support 91
Table 38: Technology Independent Criteria Definitions 125
Table 39: Technology Dependent Criteria Definitions 126

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